What AI Search Recommends for US Skincare Buyers

Executive summary

• CeraVe, The Ordinary, and La Roche-Posay are cited in 64% of all skincare queries. Derm-endorsement and ingredient-first positioning beat any DTC brand without either.
• Claude is the most conservative engine in skincare. It hedges on 58% of our prompts, deferring to "consult a dermatologist" unless a brand publishes explicit actives percentages and clinical data.
• Reddit r/SkincareAddiction and r/30PlusSkinCare are the single largest ChatGPT input. Brands absent from these communities are invisible in ChatGPT output regardless of editorial coverage.

How each engine behaves in US skincare

ChatGPT is r/SkincareAddiction, r/30PlusSkinCare, and TikTok-dermatologist heavy. Sponsored content by dermatologists (Dr Shah, Dr Idriss, Dr Dray, Dr Sam Ellis) on TikTok feeds ChatGPT's brand recommendations disproportionately. The engine reproduces the dermatologist consensus with minor paraphrasing.

Claude is INCI-first and study-first. It will not recommend "best retinol" without substantiated data. It cites brands publishing named actives, named percentages, named study references. Paula's Choice, The Ordinary, Skinceuticals, and La Roche-Posay all win Claude share. DTC brands marketing on vibes and founder story lose Claude completely.

Gemini pulls Sephora, Ulta, Amazon, and Target review data, plus Google Shopping. Gemini weights dermatologist endorsement badges (Sephora's "Dermatologist Recommended" filter, Ulta's derm-vetted programs) heavily. Products with under 300 retailer reviews get suppressed.

Perplexity cites Byrdie, Allure, Healthline, Harper's Bazaar Beauty, The Strategist, and independent derm blogs (Dr Dray, Dr Shereene Idriss). Sixty-two percent of cited sources came from these. Perplexity is also the most likely engine to cite clinical journal articles directly for ingredient queries.

Share of voice this week

Estimated citations per 100 prompts, blended:

• CeraVe 58 (ChatGPT 62, Claude 54, Gemini 60, Perplexity 55). The AI default for drugstore and sensitive-skin.
• The Ordinary 41. Ingredient-first default.
• La Roche-Posay 35. Sensitive skin and sun protection.
• Paula's Choice 28. BHA and vitamin C ingredient queries.
• Skinceuticals 25. Luxury actives.
• Drunk Elephant 20. Clean prestige.
• COSRX 19. K-beauty gentle actives.
• Beauty of Joseon 17. K-beauty, fermented ingredients.
• Bioderma 15. Micellar water default.
• Kiehl's 13. Legacy, less Claude weight.
• Sunday Riley 12. Prestige actives.
• Glow Recipe 11. K-beauty DTC.
• Summer Fridays 11. DTC prestige.
• Youth To The People 10. Clean skincare.
• Eucerin 10. Dermatologist-recommended.
• Aveeno 9. Oat-based sensitive skin.
• Differin 9. Prescription-strength adapalene OTC.

Below 9: noise.

What the winners do that losers don't

CeraVe teardown. CeraVe dominates because of three signals: (1) Every product page names the three essential ceramides with the MVE (Multi-Vesicular Emulsion) delivery explanation. (2) The brand has sustained dermatologist-sponsored TikTok content since 2020, with Dr Dray alone producing dozens of CeraVe-related videos. (3) Drugstore accessibility means universal availability across Target, Walgreens, CVS, Walmart, which Gemini picks up. CeraVe Moisturizing Cream is the most-cited skincare SKU in our data.

The Ordinary teardown. The Ordinary's SKU naming is an AI-search innovation. A product titled "Niacinamide 10% + Zinc 1%" is its own answer to "best niacinamide serum". The product page names the active percentage, the pH, the purpose, and what not to combine it with. DECIEM publishes a regimen builder, a "do not mix" guide, and ingredient-by-ingredient explainers. Claude and Perplexity both lean heavily on this structure for ingredient queries.

La Roche-Posay teardown. La Roche-Posay wins sensitive-skin queries through derm endorsement plus proprietary ingredient branding (Thermal Spring Water, Niacinamide-PP, Neurosensine). The brand publishes clinical study abstracts for its flagship products (Toleriane, Cicaplast, Anthelios) and those studies are cited by Claude directly. European regulatory credibility (tested on reactive skin in specific clinical settings) translates into trust-tier wins.

Prompt-type segmentation

Transactional ("best drugstore moisturizer oily skin"): CeraVe, Neutrogena, Vanicream, Aveeno split.

Comparative ("The Ordinary versus Paula's Choice"): Paula's Choice has the only branded versus content. The Ordinary implicitly wins through SKU clarity.

Educational ("how to layer skincare actives"): The Ordinary, Paula's Choice, and derm blogs dominate.

Trust ("is CeraVe actually good for sensitive skin"): Brands with derm endorsement plus clinical data win.

Skin-type and condition ("best skincare for perioral dermatitis", "best products for fungal acne"): Largely unanswered. Niche brands that publish condition-specific guides (La Roche-Posay Effaclar for acne-prone) get scattered cites but the category is wide open.

Ingredient-intent ("best 0.05% retinol for beginners"): Brands with explicit percentage disclosure win. Most DTC brands hide this.

Gap map

Brands under 5% AI share with real revenue:

• Tower 28. Sensitive-skin makeup and skincare, cited in 5 of 28. Needs explicit fungal-acne safe and pregnancy-safe content.
• Kiehl's. Legacy, cited in 13 of 28 but under-share given Sephora presence. Cause: product pages read like marketing copy, not ingredient data.
• Youth To The People. Cited in 10 of 28. Clean positioning works but they need specific-actives content.
• Dieux. Rising brand, cited in 3 of 28. Small footprint, great editorial.
• Topicals. Gen-Z derm-adjacent, cited in 4 of 28.
• Shani Darden. Prestige retinol, cited in 4 of 28. Famous facialist positioning.
• Sunday Riley. Prestige actives, cited in 12 of 28. Needs versus Paula's Choice content.
• Versed. Target-exclusive clean skincare, cited in 6 of 28. Great distribution, needs ingredient-percentage content.
• Hero Cosmetics. Mighty Patch, cited in 11 of 28 for acne. Needs condition-specific content.

Open queries no brand owns

1. "Skincare routine for rosacea that does not include Mirvaso". Real pain, no brand answer.
2. "Best retinol for someone in their 50s starting for the first time". Age-specific, hedged.
3. "Fungal-acne safe moisturizers". Reddit-only, no brand.
4. "Skincare during pregnancy that is not just Belli or Earth Mama". Open.
5. "Best products for perioral dermatitis flare-ups". Editorial only.
6. "Retinol versus tretinoin for beginners, when to switch". Educational gap.
7. "Hormonal acne products for women in their 30s not on birth control". High intent, no brand owner.
8. "Skincare for adult eczema that does not thin the skin". Open.

The 90-day playbook

1. Publish full INCI, named actives, percentages, pH (I5 / C5 / E3). Non-negotiable for Claude citation.

2. Build a dermatologist advisory board with visible endorsement (I5 / C3 / E2). 3 to 5 board-certified derms, clinical rationale published per product.

3. Pitch Byrdie, Allure, Harper's Bazaar Beauty, The Strategist, and independent derm creators (I5 / C3 / E2). 6 to 10 weeks to land one.

4. Build condition-specific landing pages (I5 / C4 / E3). Rosacea, perioral dermatitis, fungal acne, adult acne, postpartum melasma. Each page is a long-tail open-query winner.

5. Commission clinical study or consumer perception trial (I4 / C3 / E2). Publish results. Claude cites.

6. Seed 30 to 60 dermatologist-aligned TikTok creators per quarter (I5 / C4 / E3). Derm-led TikTok is the single biggest ChatGPT input lever in skincare.

Methodology and appendix

Prompts tested: best drugstore moisturizer dry skin, best drugstore moisturizer oily skin, best retinol beginners, best vitamin C serum under $40, best niacinamide serum, best sunscreen everyday face, best mineral sunscreen dark skin, best cleanser sensitive skin, best eye cream 30s, best eye cream 50s, best products hormonal acne, best products fungal acne, best skincare pregnancy, best rosacea skincare, best perioral dermatitis products, best products post-accutane, best anti-aging serum 40s, best hydrating serum, best lip balm dry lips, best body lotion eczema, best body wash sensitive skin, best masks dry skin, best masks oily skin, best chemical exfoliant beginner, best retinol alternative pregnancy, best dark spot treatment, best products after microneedling, best acne patches. Engines: ChatGPT gpt-5, Claude sonnet-4-6, Gemini 2.5, Perplexity Sonar Pro.

Week 1 directional. Week 2 confirmed.

Next week

April 27 rerun. Reply with your domain for a SKU-level check.